Srinagar: As assembly elections approach in Jammu and Kashmir, Omar Abdullah, leader of the National Conference (NC), faces an uphill task in the Shia-dominated Budgam district.The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has fielded Syed Muntazir Mehdi, a Shia candidate and cousin of NC MP Aga Ruhullah, raising the stakes in a constituency where Shia voters hold considerable sway. The outcome of this battle may hinge on whether the Shia vote is divided or consolidated behind a single candidate.The Shia community, comprising 20-25% of the region’s Muslim population, plays a crucial role in shaping election outcomes. In Budgam alone, 30,000 to 33,000 voters belong to the Shia sect, accounting for about 35% of the district’s population. Previous records suggest that the Shia community tends to vote in higher numbers than their Sunni counterparts, making their support vital for any candidate in the region.The Shia community in Kashmir is divided into two main sects: Mustafai and Mohammadi, both originating from the Syed lineage. Leading figures like Aga Syed Mustafa and Aga Syed Yusuf have historically guided the political and religious leanings of these groups. Aga Syed Mustafa’s family, in particular, has long been involved in Kashmir’s political landscape. His son, Aga Ruhullah, is currently an MP from the NC, while his other son, Syed Muntazir Mehdi, has now entered the electoral race under the PDP banner. This as per the political pundits can cause a potential split in the Shia vote.Omar Abdullah’s previous electoral success in Budgam could face new challenges with the emergence of Mehdi. The NC’s decision to field Omar once again indicates its reliance on his personal charisma, but the inclusion of a strong Shia candidate from the rival PDP could complicate his campaign.The broader history of the Shia community’s political involvement in Budgam adds further complexity. The Mustafai sect has seen deep ties with Congress, with Aga Syed Mehdi, the father of MP Aga Ruhullah, previously aligned with the party. However, political realignments, especially within the Aga family, have created a competitive landscape, with candidates striving for influence across Shia-majority regions.Adding to the intrigue is the fact that the Shia community, particularly in Budgam, still observes traditional methods of resolving legal disputes through Shariah courts, with many continuing to seek justice based on Islamic principles rather than conventional courts. The Aga family has historically been at the center of this practice, further cementing their influence over the Shia population.The election in Budgam is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched contests in the region, with Omar Abdullah’s path to victory possibly dependent on how well he navigates the complex dynamics within the Shia community and whether PDP’s candidate can sway a significant portion of the vote. A split in the Shia vote could work in Omar’s favor, but a unified Shia backing for Mehdi could pose a formidable challenge—(KNO)
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