In its idealized version, the monsoon bursts predictably each June, sending life-giving rains steadily northward until September. Therein lies the backbone of India’s agriculture for millennia. As climate change tightens its grip on the global weather system, this once-reliable phenomenon is becoming increasingly eccentric, posing significant tests to India’s economy, food security, and urban infrastructure.Various factors have always caused variability in the monsoon, making it notoriously unstable. However, its volatility has appreciably increased in the past decade. Periods of prolonged drought conditions are now frequently interrupted by short, violent cloudbursts that drench the parched farmlands and choked urban drainage systems. In fact, this shift to extreme events-more intense rainfall but for a much shorter duration-is indeed the signature of climate change on the monsoon.This rising variability is not just a matter of inconvenience; it’s an onslaught directly against India’s farming sector, where 60% of the farms depend totally on rainfall for irrigation.The basis for these changes lies in the simple science of climate. A hotter Earth means increased capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture; similarly, a hotter ocean heralds more evaporation. According to one estimate in 2021, for every degree Celsius rise in global temperatures, the Indian subcontinent could expect a 5.3% rise in monsoon precipitation.Yet it reflects only in increased overall rainfall, not as more useful precipitation. Instead, this is a pattern of more intense, short bursts of rainfall followed by longer spells of dry periods, which again is particularly unhelpful for agriculture or town infrastructure, neither of which are adapted to such extremes.For farmers, shifting monsoon patterns pose a significant challenge. Planting and harvesting schedules, long planned with generations of experience of the rhythms of the monsoon, nowadays need precision gleaned from the latest meteorological data. A late arrival of the monsoon-as has happened in recent years-can throw entire growing seasons out of kilter.Problems continue to persist in urban areas. Delhi and Mumbai have repeatedly proved unprepared for rainfall events of much intensity, showing up as an unevolved propensity for flooding and disturbance of life. Events such as these flag the urgent need for a more substantial and localized weather modeling capability when the forecasting systems substantially failed to correctly predict the events.With the increasing unpredictability of the monsoon, it’s pretty clear where India needs to adapt on all fronts: better forecasting through more investment in technology and human expertise, making agriculture resilient through crop diversification, water-saving methods of irrigation, and passage of real-time weather information. The urban infrastructure needs an urgent upgrade to prepare for and cope with extreme rainfall events, and there is a need to give more efficient water storage and distribution systems to balance excess with scarcity.From a symbol of nature’s periodic regularity, the monsoon has now come to be identified with the impact the climate crisis has on weather systems. Faced with this reality, India has to jumpstart changes in agricultural practice, urban planning, and water management. The future of the monsoon looks uncertain, while the response by India will determine the level of its resilience in the face of climate change.It is now time to act. As the monsoon has strayed further away from historical patterns, the Indian subcontinent has to begin an era of innovation with much-needed investment in climate-resilient infrastructure and a culture of adaptability. Only such consolidated efforts would enable the country to sail through the increasingly stormy waters of its changing climate.
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