How Russia swung the Syrian war for Assad

How Russia swung the Syrian war for Assad

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By: Dilip Hiro

Putin Doctrine advocates ruthlessly striking down any group that raises arms against a government

Bolstered by Russian air support, the Syrian government of Bashar Al Assad has retaken virtually all of eastern Aleppo controlled by the rebels since 2012. It’s a turning point in the civil war and strengthens Assad’s hand in international negotiations on Syria’s future. The victory for Assad and his international backers – chiefly Iran and Russia – represents a serious setback for the United States.Civil wars are always brutal, but Syria’s stands out for the sheer scale of casualties, refugees and infrastructure destruction. About 400,000 citizens have been killed in the country of 22 million, reports the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. As many as 6.1 million Syrians have been internally displaced. Another 4.8 million have become refugees in the neighboring countries and beyond. Economic losses during the first four years of conflict are put at $206 billion with four out of five Syrians living below the poverty line. There have been countless airstrikes on civilian targets, deliberate or accidental.

Civil wars, irrespective of how started, draw in foreign countries as patrons of warring domestic factions. War grinds on as long as outside powers maintain sufficient interest. When they conclude that their proxy is unlikely to win, or continuing investment of men and materials is not worth the costs, the conflict ends. This happened with the Lebanese civil war, 1975 to 1990. It started with an attack by a Lebanese Christian militia on a Lebanon-based Palestinian group and induced intervention of Syria, Israel, Egypt, Libya and the United States. It went through nine phases and ended only when the foreign states, except Syria, lost interest.

By contrast, Syria’s internal armed conflict, in its sixth year, is much more complex and far reaching. It started as a non-violent uprising, part of the pro-democratic Arab Spring movement in 2011, and mushroomed into a bloody war, involving Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Qatar as well as the US and Russia.

In the region the conflict acquired a sectarian profile. The government of Assad, a member of the Alawi sub-sect, was backed by Iran, and Hezbollah. It was opposed by Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

In August 2011, US President Barack Obama called on Assad to step down. The CIA, working with Turkey’s intelligence agency, helped coordinate procurement and delivery of weapons to Syrian rebels, and later sponsored its own anti-Assad faction. Initially, Russia helped Syria diplomatically by vetoing UN Security Council resolutions – a move backed by China. Russian military intervention began in September 2015.

The Kremlin’s stance rests on the Putin Doctrine, which is that any group that raises arms against an established government is terrorist. Assad subscribes to the same doctrine. Both Putin and secular Assad are fierce opponents of any form of religious extremism as are Chinese leaders.

Historically, given its friendly relations with the Soviet Union since the early 1950s, Syria stayed out of the American orbit. After the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, maintaining cordial relations with the Kremlin became “business as usual” for Syria.

Internally, levers of power are held largely by Alawis who, at 12 per cent of the population, are one-sixth the size of the Sunnis. Other non-Sunni Muslims – Ismailis and Druze – and Christians, fearful of their status in a Daesh-ruled state, have backed the status quo. Thus, about a third of the Syrian population supported the Assad regime. Another third opposed it vehemently and filled the insurgent ranks. The abiding weakness of the anti-Assad camp has been its heterogeneity – ranging from those advocating multiparty democracy to others denouncing democracy as a Western construct irrelevant to an Islamic society. To the chagrin of democrat leaders, extremist groups such as al Nusra Front, have been the best organised and armed.

Syria has the advantage of an alliance with Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution, which held during the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq War. In 2004, the two countries signed a formal strategic cooperation agreement, allowing Iranian missile sales to Syria and ongoing intelligence sharing. A defence pact followed in 2006.

Iran helped Assad to overcome attrition in his army due to defections and casualties in two ways: It dispatched units of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to Syria and trained the 100,000-stong National Defense Forces as part-time volunteer army reserves. It also backed Hezbollah militia, experienced in urban warfare, to assist the Syrian Army retake territory lost to rebels. The cost to Tehran for these activities, estimated by Staffan de Mistura, UN envoy to Syria, was $6 billion a year.

The Iraqi government of Premier Nouri Al Maliki, permitted Iran’s overflights delivering military supplies to Syria. He shipped oil to the cash-strapped Assad regime at half the market price. He and Haider Al Abadi, his successor after 2014, allowed free flow of volunteers to Syria to protect a holy shrine in Damascus.

On the opposing side, Turkey sponsored the formation of the Free Syrian Army led by defecting officers from Syria, and provided it a safe zone and base of operations. Turkey acted as a conduit for supply of arms and other supplies to the Syrian rebels. It encouraged reconciliation among quarreling rebel factions. Initially the US supplied the Free Syrian Army with such non-lethal aid as pickup trucks and food rations, but quickly began providing training, cash and intelligence to selected commanders.

By all accounts in August 2015, Assad was on the ropes, the morale of his dwindling army at rock bottom. Strong backing by Iran and Hezbollah had proved insufficient to reverse his faltering hold on power.

To save Assad’s regime from collapse, Kremlin military planners decided to shore up air defences and boost the depleted arsenal of tanks and armored vehicles. They turned Russia’s airbase near the Syrian port of Latakia into a forward-operating base, shipping in warplanes, attack helicopters, artillery and armored-personnel carriers. They also deployed advanced S-400 surface-to-air missiles.

Within a year of this intervention, most major Syrian cities were back in government hands, and rebel-held eastern Aleppo was under attack. Morale of the Assad regime had improved, even if the size of its army had diminished. Turkey’s President Erdo?an traveled to St. Petersburg to meet his “dear friend” Putin. In a striking reversal, Turkey’s president stopped calling on Assad to step down.

It seems that the formal end to the civil war will be on pro-Assad terms. Putin acquired enhanced leverage in decisions affecting regional rival, has consolidated its influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. And the emerging Iran-Syria-Russia axis is set to challenge the United States in this oil-rich, strategic region for many decades.

Dilip Hiro is the author of Lebanon, Fire and Embers: A History of the Lebanese Civil War (St Martin’s Press, New York). His latest book on the region is A Comprehensive Dictionary of the Middle East. Views expressed in this column do no necessarily reflect those of Kashmir Patriot.

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They get their information from two main sources: other lending companies that have agreed to share data about their customers, and public records. Lending companies share information including how much a customer is in debt to them, how promptly they pay their bills, and if they pay in full, and whether their credit cards are maxed out. The information gathered from public records includes details of adverse credit events such as CCJs, bankruptcies and IVAs, plus information held on the electoral roll. High street lenders interpret this data in line with their own criteria and arrive at a credit score, based on which they will say ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to a remortgage application. If the decision isn’t clear cut, they might say ‘yes’, but charge higher fees and/or a higher rate of interest. They do this for two reasons; to offset what they see as an additional risk and because they know they can, as borrowers with a poor credit rating have fewer options than those with an exemplary record. What is my credit rating? Finding our your credit rating is easy. Find out your credit report Adverse credit events stay on a person’s record for six years, after which they are removed. In the majority of cases, even if the six year period isn’t up yet, the further in the past something is, the less impact it will have on your credit score and therefore on a lender’s decision. However, even after they have ‘dropped off’ the record, if you are asked about certain types of adverse credit event – such as a previous bankruptcy or property repossession – you must declare it. While there are options available to those with an adverse credit score looking to remortgage a property, it is always recommended that you look to improve your credit score wherever possible. How does a credit score work? There are some positive steps you can take that will improve your situation and encourage lenders to look more favourably upon your application. 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These include: Get a copy of your credit report from each of the UK’s three credit reference agencies – Experian, Equifax and Callcredit – and check that the details they hold are correct (they may hold different details, so do get your report from all three, not just one) Regularly update the personal details held on your credit report Make sure you are registered on the electoral roll Keep track of your credit card balances; ideally try to always pay more than the minimum to drive the balance down, and take care not to go over your agreed credit limit Use your calendar to make sure you pay your bills on time and manage your monthly income Cancel all lines of credit that are not in use, such as store cards or ‘just in case’ credit cards (but see below for an alternative option) Build up a positive credit history; for example, if you have a credit card that you don’t use, rather than cancelling it, use it at least once a month, perhaps for buying petrol or groceries – but make sure you pay it off in full every time, don’t build up additional debt Resist the temptation to take out payday loans, as they are considered to be a red flag showing that you cannot manage your finances month to month Moving forward, leave any good debt on your report For more suggestions as to how you can repair your credit rating, check out our page of simple tips. Additional actions to take Something else to bear in mind if any missed payments show on your credit record is whether they were due to events outside of your control. If, for example, your employer went out of business, leaving you financially stranded, then you should contact each credit reference agency and explain what happened. They have the ability to add a note of correction to your credit file explaining the circumstances, which may well mitigate the effect of the default on future credit decisions. There are other things you can do that, while they do not in themselves boost your credit rating, will help you to avoid falling into future difficulties, and perhaps to pay things off faster. For example, take on some freelance work or a second job, or look for a job that pays more or is closer to home (so you save money on commuting). Make sure you aren’t paying more than you need to for things like your mobile phone, cable TV, fuel and broadband, and if you have a gym membership but can’t remember the last time you were there, cancel it. The more you have left after paying your bills, the better your chances of passing the affordability test. What is the affordability test? Every application for a mortgage or a remortgage is subject to an affordability assessment, and this is the case no matter what the credit status of the applicant might be. Potential lenders will look at income versus expenditure, taking everything into account, to arrive at a debt-to-income ratio. Since June 2014 the Financial Conduct Authority’s recommendation is that the debt-to-income ratio should be no higher than 45 for an offer of a mortgage or remortgage to be made. 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So if your need is urgent and you are asking yourself, ‘Can I remortgage with bad credit?’ the answer is ‘yes’. Get in touch today for free initial advice and no-obligation quotes from our team of experienced bad credit brokers. How can we help? Just Mortgage Brokers have experience of working with property owners at all levels, from those who are relatively new homeowners to highly experienced landlords with extensive property portfolios. We also have unlimited access to the UK mortgage market and many years of experience of working with a network of bad credit lenders across the country. That means we are not restricted to products from any one particular lender but can work with a diverse range of specialist lenders to secure the remortgage deal you require. This combination of impartiality and unlimited market access gives us the very best chance of obtaining a competitively priced bad credit remortgage. 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  24. The truth is, bad credit mortgages are harder to arrange and as a result eligible customers are often treated badly, messed around by brokers or lenders who don’t understand the circumstances, or neglected and misinformed they can’t do what they want. Thankfully the specialists we work with offer an expert service for customers of all backgrounds. How do we know? Because we train them ourselves, and license them to handle your type of enquiry only if they know what they are doing and work with the lenders on a daily basis. As whole of market brokers, the adverse credit remortgage specialists also have links to lenders who consider bespoke deals for those who don’t fit even the most flexible of lender. So, if there is an adverse credit remortgage out there for you, they’ll find it. With any remortgage, bad credit can cause real problems. We are asked regularly, ‘can I remortgage with bad credit?’ Many borrowers want to know specifically which types of credit issue are acceptable, so below we have created a list and outline what is and isn’t possible when getting approved for a remortgage with bad credit: No credit history Low credit score Late payments Missed mortgage payments Defaults CCJ’s IVA’s Debt management Schemes Repossessions Bankruptcy Payday Loans And mortgage customers with multiple credit problems There are all sorts of different reasons customers look for a bad credit remortgage, including: Debt consolidation (bad credit mortgage refinance) Looking for a better rate Capital raising to purchase something (house/car/holiday etc) Let to buy remortgage with bad credit (remortgaging onto a buy to let and moving home) Marital split (remortgaging to buy out ex partner) Raising money for investment purposes (that not all lenders consider) If you’re looking for any of the above, or are simply just seeking some information, please get in touch and we’ll have one of the experts offer you the advice you need. How to remortgage with bad credit: Bad credit remortgages are a tricky thing to explain in one article and still make it relevant for everyone, because every situation is different. Lenders have certain criteria but then for certain customers, it may be possible to overturn a case that would usually be a decline, if it is a strong proposition for a lender regardless. Sometimes, customers with huge savings and great LTV’s can obtain bad credit home mortgage refinance deals regardless of their credit history. Below is a step-by-step guide of the best way to remortgage for bad credit customers, to help them prepare for applications and to assist them in gathering the right info for us upfront, so we can be best placed to offer the right advice. Don’t go to your bank! This is a very important step. I know it sounds so biased coming from a mortgage broker website but it’s true. We are NOT anti-banks, we all need them. We are pro helping you get what’s best. Your bank is only ever in it to make a profit for themselves. There’s good money in mortgages and as the market is so competitive, these single bank advisers are taught to gain commitment from enquiries as soon as possible. This minimises the risk of you strolling into the bank next door and finding a better rate, or worse, going online. As such, they are actively encouraged and often targeted to credit score any customer willing to sit in their office – great if you don’t want to shop around and have clean credit – not great if you’re looking for poor credit remortgages or want the best deals you can get. Credit scoring with a lender that won’t lend to you is an unnecessary and damaging process, that can often leave you in a worse position because a further credit score has been added to your file. Get your credit report Before you do anything (even before you don’t go to your bank), you need to find out what you’re working with. To remortgage with bad credit history it is vital to understand which issues will effect you, and how to overcome them by finding a lender or repairing your credit file. Remember: It’s what’s on your file that’s important, so any late payments or other issues that haven’t been registered with a credit reference agency won’t usually matter. The only exceptions to this are when you are applying for a mortgage with your bank, where you may have exceeded on overdrafts or credit cards or had issues with other arrangements like direct debits bouncing etc, and your bank keeps a record of them on your account. These can be things they take into account with their mortgage credit scoring system, but aren’t usually required to report to credit reference agencies so only your bank would know about them. In these instances where your bank may give you a low or medium score because of issues on your account, other lenders outside of that banking group may give you a higher score – Something to keep in mind if you’re struggling to work out why you’ve been declined. Also, it’s often the case where we help customers who have never checked their file and fear the worst, often having buried their heads in the sand, to then go on to find out things aren’t as bad as they thought. Actually, its surprising for a lot of people what is available in terms of bad credit remortgages in the UK, and that there are lenders out there with flexible criteria that still have competitive rates. NOTE: We advise you sign up for all three of Experian, Check My File, and UK Credit Ratings. Each lender uses a different one and often times they show different information. It’ll take an extra 5 minutes but if you’ve had problems and have been declined with a lender before, then it’s very much worth it. You will NOT be penalised or scored any differently for searching your own credit file with these agencies – credit score is only affected by applications for credit. AND – ITS FREE! Sign up for the free trials below and order your reports now. Sign up for your free trials here… Get your credit rating Find a broker… Establish your Loan to value (LTV) Work out the property value and the amount of deposit/equity you’ll have after the new mortgage, to define the LTV. This figure is important because lenders base their criteria around the different LTVs, where those with higher LTVs must have better credit ratings than those with lower LTVs. Customers at 90 usually require good credit scores and clean (or very light) adverse credit, customers at 85 can qualify with lenders with mild adverse credit or severe but historical issues, and customers at 75 or less can often get mortgages with heavy adverse credit issues (depending on how recent they were). Establish affordability The broker must also check the loan you want is within the lenders limits. This is true of any mortgage, not just remortgages for bad credit. They tend to work out based on a multiple of your annual income – a rough guide is 4x. So for a borrower on £50k the max might be £200k, however, certain lenders can offer up to 5x and in special circumstances go above and beyond this. The figures used by lenders changes when it comes to deciding what is and isn’t classed as income – usually the basic salary (or net profit for sole traders/partnerships, or directors salary + dividends if ltd company), is used for the full value. Other income such as overtime, bonuses, other employed income, and state benefits, may either be taken 100, or as a lesser percentage, or not counted at all. Map your credit file to the most appropriate lender The broker will then research all the best remortgage deals for bad credit based on your loan amount and LTV, and work from the top down the list to the first lender that will be most likely to accept your application. Obviously if you have more severe credit history issues then a high street lender with the best deals is unlikely to approve you, so your rate and/or fees are likely to be higher. Don’t let that scare you however – you’d be surprised that the deals tend not to be astronomical and actually are still competitive. If there’s no one that will consider your application due to your credit history at that particular LTV, then be prepared to find more equity/deposit to lower the LTV into a bracket that lenders will consider (this may only be a few depending on your current situation, as lenders at 85 are much more flexible than at 90). The alternative is being patient enough to wait for your credit report to recover over time, as the older the issues are, the less impact they have. Click for a detailed article on How to recover your credit report as quickly as possible. TOP TIP: One of the best things you can do to increase your credit score is to obtain an adverse specific credit card, and spend and repay in full on a monthly basis – this helps to prove you can borrow and live within your means at the same time, and you’ll notice your score improve over the coming weeks and months. There are 2 options here, the first is a standard credit card specifically for those with bad credit, the second is for those who are declined for standard cards and need a guaranteed-acceptance card (usually if you have had more severe and more recent adverse credit). We’d recommend trying for the Aqua card first, then go for the Mastercard if declined. the Card by Aqua here

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